The Prediction Markets

Cambria listed on ___ within 30 days of TGE?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Kraken 60.5%

Next is OKX at 42.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Kraken
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kraken
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
OKX
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
OKX
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Coinbase
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coinbase
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bybit
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bybit
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Upbit
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Upbit
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Binance
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Binance
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kraken
  • OKX
  • Coinbase

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Cambria listed on ___ within 30 days of TGE?". Kraken leads at 60.5%. Next is OKX at 42.5%. $36K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cambria's token is listed for spot trading on the exchange named in the title within 30 days after the token's launch (TGE). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Cambria after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token's launch (TGE) is defined as the first time the token is actively and publicly tradable. A qualifying listing means the token is available for spot trading on the exchange's primary global platform at any point from the token's launch through 11:59 PM ET on the 30th calendar day following the calendar day of launch (measured in ET). Perpetual futures, other derivatives, and pre-launch markets do not qualify. Roadmap additions, listing announcements, and deposit-only support do not qualify unless spot trading is live by the deadline. Listings available only on regional or affiliate platforms (e.g. Binance.US, Binance TR, Binance Alpha, Coinbase International Exchange, Upbit Singapore) do not qualify. A listing qualifies regardless of jurisdictional availability. Spot trading does not need to be accessible in any specific country or region, provided it is live on the exchange's primary global platform. If Cambria does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the respective exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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