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What the markets expect
Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus 78%
Next is Eliseo Fernández Montúfar at 15.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus78%73.5%78% fair73¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 2 min ago74¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus78%Polymarket 73.5%(78% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus
78%
73.5%
78% fair
73¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
74¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus
78%
Polymarket 73.5%(78% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus
- Last price
- 73.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $12K
Eliseo Fernández Montúfar15.5%14.6%15.5% fair13¢ bid, 16.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago16.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $617 (6.17x)Eliseo Fernández Montúfar15.5%Polymarket 14.6%(15.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $617 (6.17x)
Eliseo Fernández Montúfar
15.5%
14.6%
15.5% fair
13¢ bid, 16.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
16.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $617 (6.17x)
Eliseo Fernández Montúfar
15.5%
Polymarket 14.6%(15.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $617 (6.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eliseo Fernández Montúfar
- Last price
- 14.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $617 (6.17x)
- Volume
- $1K
Aníbal Ostoa Ortega0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Aníbal Ostoa Ortega0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Aníbal Ostoa Ortega
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Aníbal Ostoa Ortega
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Aníbal Ostoa Ortega
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $822
Carlos Ucán Yam0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Carlos Ucán Yam0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Carlos Ucán Yam
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Carlos Ucán Yam
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Carlos Ucán Yam
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $648
Daniel Barreda Pavón0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Daniel Barreda Pavón0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Daniel Barreda Pavón
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Daniel Barreda Pavón
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Daniel Barreda Pavón
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $661
Biby Rabelo de la Torre0.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Biby Rabelo de la Torre0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Biby Rabelo de la Torre
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Biby Rabelo de la Torre
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Biby Rabelo de la Torre
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $644
Paul Arce Ontiveros0.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Paul Arce Ontiveros0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Paul Arce Ontiveros
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Paul Arce Ontiveros
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paul Arce Ontiveros
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $617
Salvador Farías González0.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Salvador Farías González0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Salvador Farías González
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Salvador Farías González
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Salvador Farías González
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $656
Andrés Fernández del Valle0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Andrés Fernández del Valle0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Andrés Fernández del Valle
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Andrés Fernández del Valle
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andrés Fernández del Valle
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $653
Ariana Rejón Lara0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Ariana Rejón Lara0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ariana Rejón Lara
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ariana Rejón Lara
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ariana Rejón Lara
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $684
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Armando Toledo Jamit0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Armando Toledo Jamit0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Armando Toledo Jamit
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Armando Toledo Jamit
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Armando Toledo Jamit
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $721
Christian Castro Bello0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Christian Castro Bello0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Christian Castro Bello
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Christian Castro Bello
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Christian Castro Bello
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $659
Liz Hernández Romero0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Liz Hernández Romero0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Liz Hernández Romero
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Liz Hernández Romero
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Liz Hernández Romero
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $623
Pablo Angulo Briceño0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Pablo Angulo Briceño0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Pablo Angulo Briceño
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Pablo Angulo Briceño
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pablo Angulo Briceño
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $621
Ricardo Medina Farfán0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Ricardo Medina Farfán0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ricardo Medina Farfán
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Ricardo Medina Farfán
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ricardo Medina Farfán
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $650
Rocío Abreu Artiñano0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Rocío Abreu Artiñano0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rocío Abreu Artiñano
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rocío Abreu Artiñano
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rocío Abreu Artiñano
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $663
Dulce Dorantes Cervera0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Dulce Dorantes Cervera0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Dulce Dorantes Cervera
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Dulce Dorantes Cervera
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dulce Dorantes Cervera
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $695
Emilio Lara Calderón0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Emilio Lara Calderón0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Emilio Lara Calderón
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Emilio Lara Calderón
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Emilio Lara Calderón
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $677
Francisco Farías Bailón0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Francisco Farías Bailón0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Francisco Farías Bailón
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Francisco Farías Bailón
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Francisco Farías Bailón
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $677
Yolanda Valladares Valle0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Yolanda Valladares Valle0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Yolanda Valladares Valle
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Yolanda Valladares Valle
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yolanda Valladares Valle
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $595
Gerardo Sánchez Sansores0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Gerardo Sánchez Sansores0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Gerardo Sánchez Sansores
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Gerardo Sánchez Sansores
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gerardo Sánchez Sansores
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $660
Martina Kantún Can0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Martina Kantún Can0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Martina Kantún Can
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Martina Kantún Can
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Martina Kantún Can
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $712
Nelly Márquez Zapata0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Nelly Márquez Zapata0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Nelly Márquez Zapata
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Nelly Márquez Zapata
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nelly Márquez Zapata
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $621
Karla Guadalupe Toledo Zamora0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Karla Guadalupe Toledo Zamora0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Karla Guadalupe Toledo Zamora
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Karla Guadalupe Toledo Zamora
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Karla Guadalupe Toledo Zamora
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $682
Laura Baqueiro Ramos0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Laura Baqueiro Ramos0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Laura Baqueiro Ramos
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Laura Baqueiro Ramos
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Laura Baqueiro Ramos
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $670
Rosario Cruz Hernández0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Rosario Cruz Hernández0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Rosario Cruz Hernández
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Rosario Cruz Hernández
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rosario Cruz Hernández
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $688
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus
- Eliseo Fernández Montúfar
- Aníbal Ostoa Ortega
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Campeche Governor Election Winner". Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus leads at 78%. Next is Eliseo Fernández Montúfar at 15.5%. $29K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Campeche on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Campeche gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Campeche and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Campeche and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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