The Prediction Markets

Canada Nominal GDP in 2026

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$40K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $2.1 trillion 98%

Next is Above $2.2 trillion at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $2.1 trillion
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.1 trillion
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.2 trillion
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.2 trillion
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.3 trillion
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.3 trillion
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.4 trillion
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.4 trillion
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.5 trillion
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.5 trillion
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0 to 0.1%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0 to 0.1%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.6 trillion
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.6 trillion
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2 to 0.3%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2 to 0.3%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.4 to 0.5%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4 to 0.5%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.7 trillion
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.7 trillion
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above $2.8 trillion
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.8 trillion
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2%
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $3.1 trillion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.1 trillion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.2 trillion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.2 trillion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2 to -0.1%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2 to -0.1%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$985
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6%+
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%+
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.9 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.9 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.0 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.0 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: www150.statcan.gc.ca
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $2.1 trillion
  • Above $2.2 trillion
  • Above $2.3 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $2.1 trillion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Canada Nominal GDP in 2026". Above $2.1 trillion leads at 98%. Next is Above $2.2 trillion at 90%. $40K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets