The Prediction Markets

Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner

Starts in 37 daysKickoff
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

José Maria Neves 87.5%

Next is PAICV at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
José Maria Neves
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Maria Neves
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
PAICV
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
PAICV
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
MpD
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
MpD
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Kalshi
Janine Lélis
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Janine Lélis
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
UCID
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
UCID
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Joana Rosa
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joana Rosa
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Casimiro de Pina
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Casimiro de Pina
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Péricles Tavares
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Péricles Tavares
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernando Delgado
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Delgado
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$688
Trade this on Polymarket
Milton Paiva
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Milton Paiva
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cne.cv
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • José Maria Neves
  • PAICV
  • MpD

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list José Maria Neves for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner". José Maria Neves leads at 87.5%. Next is PAICV at 82%. $38K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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