The Prediction Markets

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Closes
Nov 22, 2026, in 30 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1M 99%

Next is Above 2M at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2M
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 34s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2M
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3M
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3M
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4M
86.5%
Kalshi 86.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4M
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5M
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5M
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8M
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8M
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10M
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10M
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12M
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12M
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14M
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14M
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 16M
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18M
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$525
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20M
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20M
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1M
  • Above 2M
  • Above 3M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams". Above 1M leads at 99%. Next is Above 2M at 97%. $2K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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