The Prediction Markets

Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q1

Closes
Jun 28, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 22.4 million 98%

Next is Above 23.3 million at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 22.4 million
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 22.4 million
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.3 million
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.3 million
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.4 million
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.4 million
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.2 million
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.2 million
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.5 million
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.5 million
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.6 million
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.6 million
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.7 million
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.7 million
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.8 million
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.8 million
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.9 million
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.9 million
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 24.1 million
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 24.1 million
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 25.0 million
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25.0 million
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 24.2 million
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 24.2 million
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 24.0 million
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 24.0 million
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carnival Corporation Ltd.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 22.4 million
  • Above 23.3 million
  • Above 23.4 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q1". Above 22.4 million leads at 98%. Next is Above 23.3 million at 96%. $13K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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