The Prediction Markets

Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 17 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 780 thousand 93%

Next is Above 790 thousand at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 780 thousand
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 780 thousand
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$510
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 790 thousand
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 790 thousand
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800 thousand
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800 thousand
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 820 thousand
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 820 thousand
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$801
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 810 thousand
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 810 thousand
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$931
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 830 thousand
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 830 thousand
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 840 thousand
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 840 thousand
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 850 thousand
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 850 thousand
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 880 thousand
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 880 thousand
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 870 thousand
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 870 thousand
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Above 860 thousand
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 860 thousand
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 900 thousand
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900 thousand
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 910 thousand
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 910 thousand
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 890 thousand
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 890 thousand
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 780 thousand
  • Above 790 thousand
  • Above 800 thousand

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026". Above 780 thousand leads at 93%. Next is Above 790 thousand at 90%. $16K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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