The Prediction Markets

Central Bank of Colombia decision in December

Closes
Dec 18, 2026, in 55 days
Traded
$33K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Hike 25bps 72%

Next is No change at 70.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hike 25bps
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
No change
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike 1-25bps
51.3%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Maintain current rate
36.5%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps increase
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
12.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps increase
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$535 (5.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike more than 25bps
5%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Cut 1-25bps
4%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps decrease
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$941
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps decrease
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Cut more than 25bps
2.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Cut 25bps
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: banrep.gov.co
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics, Trading Economics, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hike 25bps
  • No change
  • Hike 1-25bps

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hike 25bps for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Central Bank of Colombia decision in December". Hike 25bps leads at 72%. Next is No change at 70.5%. $33K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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