The Prediction Markets

Chess.com Woman Player of the Year Winner

Closes
Feb 7, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Divya Deshmukh 20.8%

Next is Lei Tingjie at 17.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Divya Deshmukh 20.8%Lei Tingjie 17.6%Vaishali Rameshbabu 16%Polina Shuvalova 10.4%Bibisara Assaubayeva 8.8%10 others 26.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Divya Deshmukh
20.8%
Kalshi 26%(20.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Divya Deshmukh
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
20.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
Lei Tingjie
17.6%
Kalshi 22%(17.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lei Tingjie
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
17.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Vaishali Rameshbabu
16%
Kalshi 20%(16% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vaishali Rameshbabu
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$861
Trade this on Kalshi
Polina Shuvalova
10.4%
Kalshi 13%(10.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Polina Shuvalova
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Kalshi
Bibisara Assaubayeva
8.8%
Kalshi 11%(8.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bibisara Assaubayeva
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zhu Jiner
4.8%
Kalshi 6%(4.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zhu Jiner
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Kalshi
Aleksandra Goryachkina
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aleksandra Goryachkina
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandra Kosteniuk
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandra Kosteniuk
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anna Muzychuk
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anna Muzychuk
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hou Yifan
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hou Yifan
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Ju Wenjun
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ju Wenjun
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kateryna Lagno
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kateryna Lagno
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Koneru Humpy
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koneru Humpy
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tan Zhongyi
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tan Zhongyi
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie/Co-Winners
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie/Co-Winners
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Chess.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Divya Deshmukh
  • Lei Tingjie
  • Vaishali Rameshbabu

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Chess.com Woman Player of the Year Winner". Divya Deshmukh leads at 20.8%. Next is Lei Tingjie at 17.6%. $4K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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