The Prediction Markets

Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 37 days
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Wang Mei-hui 71.9%

Next is Chang Chi-kai at 22%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Wang Mei-hui 71.9%Chang Chi-kai 22%Chen Chia-ping 2.7%Weng Shou-liang 1.6%Huang Hung-cheng 1.2%Chen Kai-huang 0.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Wang Mei-hui
71.9%
Polymarket 75%(71.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wang Mei-hui
Last price
75%
Fair, margin removed
71.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chang Chi-kai
22%
Polymarket 23%(22% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chang Chi-kai
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chen Chia-ping
2.7%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chen Chia-ping
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Weng Shou-liang
1.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Weng Shou-liang
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Polymarket
Huang Hung-cheng
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Huang Hung-cheng
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Polymarket
Chen Kai-huang
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chen Kai-huang
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: db.cec.gov.tw

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wang Mei-hui
  • Chang Chi-kai
  • Chen Chia-ping

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner". Wang Mei-hui leads at 71.9%. Next is Chang Chi-kai at 22%. $20K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Chiayi City as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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