The Prediction Markets

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above -0.30 99%

Next is Above -0.40 at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above -0.30
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.30
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.40
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 49s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.40
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.20
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.20
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.10
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.10
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.00
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.00
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.10
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.10
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.20
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.20
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - CFNAI

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above -0.30
  • Above -0.40
  • Above 0.20

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September". Above -0.30 leads at 99%. Next is Above -0.40 at 99%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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