The Prediction Markets

Chicago: Stage of Elimination

Closes
Mar 7, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Regular Season 33.7%

Next is Wildcard Round at 24.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Regular Season 33.7%Wildcard Round 24.5%Divisional Round 22.5%Conference Championship 7.1%Championship Winner 6.1%Runner-Up 6.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Regular Season
33.7%
Kalshi 33%(33.7% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Regular Season
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
33.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Kalshi
Wildcard Round
24.5%
Kalshi 24%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildcard Round
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Kalshi
Divisional Round
22.5%
Kalshi 22%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Divisional Round
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Kalshi
Conference Championship
7.1%
Kalshi 7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conference Championship
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Kalshi
Championship Winner
6.1%
Kalshi 6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Championship Winner
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Runner-Up
6.1%
Kalshi 6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Runner-Up
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Regular Season
  • Wildcard Round
  • Divisional Round

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Chicago: Stage of Elimination". Regular Season leads at 33.7%. Next is Wildcard Round at 24.5%. $6K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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