The Prediction Markets

China Annual Inflation 2026

Closes
Jan 10, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$120K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

0.6 – 1.0% 59%

Next is 1.1 – 1.5% at 23.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

0.6 – 1.0% 59%1.1 – 1.5% 23.4%0.1 – 0.5% 12.5%1.6 – 2.0% 2.3%0.4 – 0.0% 1.1%4 others 1.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
0.6 – 1.0%
59%
Polymarket 60.5%(59% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6 – 1.0%
Last price
60.5%
Fair, margin removed
59%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.1 – 1.5%
23.4%
Polymarket 24%(23.4% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1 – 1.5%
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
23.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1 – 0.5%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1 – 0.5%
Last price
12.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
10.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6 – 2.0%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6 – 2.0%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.4 – 0.0%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4 – 0.0%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.9 – -0.5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.9 – -0.5%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.0-2.4%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.4%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.0%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: stats.gov.cn

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0.6 – 1.0%
  • 1.1 – 1.5%
  • 0.1 – 0.5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "China Annual Inflation 2026". 0.6 – 1.0% leads at 59%. Next is 1.1 – 1.5% at 23.4%. $120K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2027.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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