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What the markets expect
Above $19.2 trillion 99%
Next is Above $19.8 trillion at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above $19.2 trillion99%Not listed99%95¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove $19.2 trillion99%Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Above $19.2 trillion
99%
Not listed
99%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above $19.2 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $19.2 trillion
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- Volume
- $697
Above $19.8 trillion99%Not listed99%97¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above $19.8 trillion99%Kalshi 99%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $19.8 trillion
99%
Not listed
99%
97¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $19.8 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $19.8 trillion
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $299
Above $20.0 trillion98%Not listed98%98¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above $20.0 trillion98%Kalshi 98%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $20.0 trillion
98%
Not listed
98%
98¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $20.0 trillion
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $20.0 trillion
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 0.0%97.5%Not listed97.5%95¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 0.0%97.5%Kalshi 97.5%polled, just now
Above 0.0%
97.5%
Not listed
97.5%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 0.0%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, just now
Above $19.4 trillion97%Not listed97%95¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove $19.4 trillion97%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above $19.4 trillion
97%
Not listed
97%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above $19.4 trillion
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $19.4 trillion
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- Volume
- $634
Above $20.4 trillion97%Not listed97%97¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above $20.4 trillion97%Kalshi 97%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $20.4 trillion
97%
Not listed
97%
97¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $20.4 trillion
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $20.4 trillion
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $407
Above 0.5%97%Not listed97%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 0.5%97%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 0.5%
97%
Not listed
97%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 0.5%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 1.0%96.5%Not listed96.5%94¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 1.0%96.5%Kalshi 96.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 1.0%
96.5%
Not listed
96.5%
94¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 1.0%
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.0%
- Last price
- 96.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 1.5%96%Not listed96%93¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 1.5%96%Kalshi 96%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 1.5%
96%
Not listed
96%
93¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 1.5%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.5%
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 2.0%96%Not listed96%93¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 2.0%96%Kalshi 96%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 2.0%
96%
Not listed
96%
93¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 2.0%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.0%
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Show 42 more outcomesHide 42 outcomes
Above 2.5%95.5%Not listed95.5%92¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 2.5%95.5%Kalshi 95.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 2.5%
95.5%
Not listed
95.5%
92¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 2.5%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.5%
- Last price
- 95.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.0%95.5%Not listed95.5%92¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 3.0%95.5%Kalshi 95.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.0%
95.5%
Not listed
95.5%
92¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.0%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.0%
- Last price
- 95.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above $19.6 trillion95%Not listed95%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above $19.6 trillion95%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $19.6 trillion
95%
Not listed
95%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $19.6 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $19.6 trillion
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $274
Above $20.2 trillion95%Not listed95%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above $20.2 trillion95%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $20.2 trillion
95%
Not listed
95%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $20.2 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $20.2 trillion
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 3.5%95%Not listed95%91¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 3.5%95%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.5%
95%
Not listed
95%
91¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.5%
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0%95%Not listed95%91¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.0%95%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0%
95%
Not listed
95%
91¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0%
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.5%90%Not listed90%90¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.5%90%Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.5%
90%
Not listed
90%
90¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.5%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.5%
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $490
Above 5.0%89%Not listed89%89¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 5.0%89%Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 5.0%
89%
Not listed
89%
89¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 5.0%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.0%
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $37
Above $20.6 trillion88%Not listed88%87¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, just now96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above $20.6 trillion88%Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above $20.6 trillion
88%
Not listed
88%
87¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, just now
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above $20.6 trillion
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $20.6 trillion
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $357
Above $20.8 trillion83%Not listed83%81¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, just now91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Above $20.8 trillion83%Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above $20.8 trillion
83%
Not listed
83%
81¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, just now
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above $20.8 trillion
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $20.8 trillion
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $415
Above $21.0 trillion83%Not listed83%83¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Above $21.0 trillion83%Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Above $21.0 trillion
83%
Not listed
83%
83¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Above $21.0 trillion
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $21.0 trillion
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $677
Above 5.5%79%Not listed79%79¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, just now89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 5.5%79%Kalshi 79%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 5.5%
79%
Not listed
79%
79¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, just now
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 5.5%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.5%
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $130
Above $21.2 trillion67%Not listed67%66¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, just now76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Above $21.2 trillion67%Kalshi 67%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Above $21.2 trillion
67%
Not listed
67%
66¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, just now
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Above $21.2 trillion
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $21.2 trillion
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $333
Above $21.4 trillion54%Not listed54%44¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, just now54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Above $21.4 trillion54%Kalshi 54%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Above $21.4 trillion
54%
Not listed
54%
44¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, just now
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Above $21.4 trillion
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $21.4 trillion
- Last price
- 54%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $162
2.1% to 2.5%50.1%Not listed50.1%50.1¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, just now66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)2.1% to 2.5%50.1%Kalshi 50.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
2.1% to 2.5%
50.1%
Not listed
50.1%
50.1¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, just now
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
2.1% to 2.5%
50.1%
Kalshi 50.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.1% to 2.5%
- Last price
- 50.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 50.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $39K
Above 6.0%47%Not listed47%47¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, just now57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Above 6.0%47%Kalshi 47%polled, just nowBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 6.0%
47%
Not listed
47%
47¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, just now
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 6.0%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, just nowBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.0%
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $913
4.3-4.6%46.5%46.5%46¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed47¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $213 (2.13x)4.3-4.6%46.5%Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
4.3-4.6%
46.5%
46.5%
46¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
47¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
4.3-4.6%
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.3-4.6%
- Last price
- 46.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above $21.6 trillion43%Not listed43%33¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, just now43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Above $21.6 trillion43%Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Above $21.6 trillion
43%
Not listed
43%
33¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, just now
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Above $21.6 trillion
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $21.6 trillion
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $22
4.6-4.9%42%42%40¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)4.6-4.9%42%Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
4.6-4.9%
42%
42%
40¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
4.6-4.9%
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.6-4.9%
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above $21.8 trillion31%Not listed31%21¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, just now31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Above $21.8 trillion31%Kalshi 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Above $21.8 trillion
31%
Not listed
31%
21¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, just now
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Above $21.8 trillion
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $21.8 trillion
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $10
Above $22.0 trillion20%Not listed20%10¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, just now20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above $22.0 trillion20%Kalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above $22.0 trillion
20%
Not listed
20%
10¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, just now
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above $22.0 trillion
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $22.0 trillion
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $28
1.6% to 2.0%16.1%Not listed16.1%16¢ bid, 20.9¢ askpolled, just now20.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $478 (4.78x)1.6% to 2.0%16.1%Kalshi 16.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 20.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
1.6% to 2.0%
16.1%
Not listed
16.1%
16¢ bid, 20.9¢ ask
polled, just now
20.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $478 (4.78x)
1.6% to 2.0%
16.1%
Kalshi 16.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 20.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1.6% to 2.0%
- Last price
- 16.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $478 (4.78x)
- Volume
- $41K
2.6% to 3.0%14.5%Not listed14.5%12.2¢ bid, 14.5¢ askpolled, just now14.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $690 (6.90x)2.6% to 3.0%14.5%Kalshi 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
2.6% to 3.0%
14.5%
Not listed
14.5%
12.2¢ bid, 14.5¢ ask
polled, just now
14.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $690 (6.90x)
2.6% to 3.0%
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2.6% to 3.0%
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 12.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $690 (6.90x)
- Volume
- $29K
4.0-4.3%9.8%9.8%7¢ bid, 12.5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed12.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $800 (8.00x)4.0-4.3%9.8%Polymarket 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
4.0-4.3%
9.8%
9.8%
7¢ bid, 12.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
12.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $800 (8.00x)
4.0-4.3%
9.8%
Polymarket 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.0-4.3%
- Last price
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $800 (8.00x)
- Volume
- $945
Above $22.2 trillion8%Not listed8%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Above $22.2 trillion8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Above $22.2 trillion
8%
Not listed
8%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Above $22.2 trillion
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $22.2 trillion
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $522
3.1% to 3.5%4.9%Not listed4.9%0.2¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, just now4.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)3.1% to 3.5%4.9%Kalshi 4.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
3.1% to 3.5%
4.9%
Not listed
4.9%
0.2¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, just now
4.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
3.1% to 3.5%
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.1% to 3.5%
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $47K
4.9-5.2%4%4%0.5¢ bid, 7.5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)4.9-5.2%4%Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
4.9-5.2%
4%
4%
0.5¢ bid, 7.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
4.9-5.2%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.9-5.2%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,333 (13.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
1.1% to 1.5%3.1%Not listed3.1%3.1¢ bid, 4.6¢ askpolled, just now4.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)1.1% to 1.5%3.1%Kalshi 3.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Not listed
3.1%
3.1¢ bid, 4.6¢ ask
polled, just now
4.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1.1% to 1.5%
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,174 (21.7x)
- Volume
- $23K
0.1% to 0.5%1%Not listed1%— bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, just now2.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)0.1% to 0.5%1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, just now
2.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 0.1% to 0.5%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $30K
0.0% or Below0.9%Not listed0.9%— bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, just now0.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $11,111 (111x)0.0% or Below0.9%Kalshi 0.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Not listed
0.9%
— bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, just now
0.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 0.0% or Below
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $49K
4.1% to 4.5%0.9%Not listed0.9%— bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, just now0.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $11,111 (111x)4.1% to 4.5%0.9%Kalshi 0.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Not listed
0.9%
— bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, just now
0.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.1% to 4.5%
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $44K
5.5%+0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.5%+0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.5%+
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.5%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.5%+
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
0.6% to 1.0%0.5%Not listed0.5%— bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, just now0.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $20,000 (200x)0.6% to 1.0%0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
— bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, just now
0.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 0.6% to 1.0%
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $26K
4.6% to 5.0%0.4%Not listed0.4%— bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, just now0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)4.6% to 5.0%0.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
— bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, just now
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.6% to 5.0%
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $33K
6.1% or Above0.4%Not listed0.4%— bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, just now0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)6.1% or Above0.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
— bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, just now
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 6.1% or Above
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $17K
3.4%0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)3.4%0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
3.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
3.4%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.4%
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $940
3.6% to 4.0%0.1%Not listed0.1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)3.6% to 4.0%0.1%Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Not listed
0.1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3.6% to 4.0%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $36K
5.1% to 5.5%0.1%Not listed0.1%— bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, just now0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)5.1% to 5.5%0.1%Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Not listed
0.1%
— bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, just now
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% to 5.5%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $10K
5.2-5.5%0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)5.2-5.5%0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
5.2-5.5%
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
5.2-5.5%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.2-5.5%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $562
5.6% to 6.0%0.1%Not listed0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, just now0.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)5.6% to 6.0%0.1%Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Not listed
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, just now
0.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.6% to 6.0%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $5K
3.4-3.7%0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)3.4-3.7%0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
3.4-3.7%
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
3.4-3.7%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.4-3.7%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $412
3.7-4.0%0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)3.7-4.0%0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
3.7-4.0%
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
3.7-4.0%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.7-4.0%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $499
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trading Economics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above $19.2 trillion
- Above $19.8 trillion
- Above $20.0 trillion
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Above $19.2 trillion for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?". Above $19.2 trillion leads at 99%. Next is Above $19.8 trillion at 99%. $454K has traded across 52 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for some time in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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