The Prediction Markets

China Nominal GDP in 2026

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$965K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $19.2 trillion 99%

Next is Above $19.8 trillion at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $19.2 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $19.2 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $19.8 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $19.8 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $20.0 trillion
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $20.0 trillion
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $19.4 trillion
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $19.4 trillion
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$634
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $20.4 trillion
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $20.4 trillion
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0–5.0%
96.3%
Polymarket 96.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0–5.0%
Last price
96.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$245K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $19.6 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $19.6 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $20.2 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $20.2 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $20.6 trillion
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $20.6 trillion
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $20.8 trillion
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $20.8 trillion
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Above $21.0 trillion
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $21.0 trillion
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$677
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $21.2 trillion
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $21.2 trillion
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $21.4 trillion
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $21.4 trillion
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
4.3-4.6%
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3-4.6%
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $21.6 trillion
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $21.6 trillion
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6-4.9%
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.6-4.9%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $21.8 trillion
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $21.8 trillion
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $22.0 trillion
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $22.0 trillion
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $22.2 trillion
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $22.2 trillion
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0-4.3%
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0-4.3%
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.9-5.2%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.9-5.2%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.0–6.0%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.0–6.0%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0–4.0%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0–4.0%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
8.0–9.0%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
8.0–9.0%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
9.0%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
9.0%+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$118K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.0–3.0%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–3.0%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.0-7.0%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.0-7.0%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$91K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.2-5.5%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.2-5.5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Polymarket
1.0–2.0%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0–2.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.0%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4-3.7%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4-3.7%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Polymarket
3.7-4.0%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7-4.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
7.0–8.0%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.0–8.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: stats.gov.cn
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $19.2 trillion
  • Above $19.8 trillion
  • Above $20.0 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $19.2 trillion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "China Nominal GDP in 2026". Above $19.2 trillion leads at 99%. Next is Above $19.8 trillion at 99%. $965K has traded across 35 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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