The Prediction Markets

China unemployment rate in October

Closes
Nov 16, 2026, in 23 days
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 4.6% 98.5%

Next is Above 4.7% at 98.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.6%
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
4.2%
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2%
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.1%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.1%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.3%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.2%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.2%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
4.0%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$951
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.3%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.3%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$498
Trade this on Kalshi
4.4%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.4%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.4%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.4%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.6%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.6%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.6%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
3.8%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Polymarket
4.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
3.9%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.6%
  • Above 4.7%
  • Above 4.8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.6% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "China unemployment rate in October". Above 4.6% leads at 98.5%. Next is Above 4.7% at 98.5%. $26K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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