The Prediction Markets

Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Qingdao Hainiu 98.6%

Next is Wuhan Three Towns at 92.7%. The venues differ most on Chengdu Rongcheng (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 82%), a 82-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Qingdao Hainiu
98.6%
Polymarket 98.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qingdao Hainiu
Last price
98.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
97.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Polymarket
Wuhan Three Towns
92.7%
Polymarket 92.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuhan Three Towns
Last price
92.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chengdu RongchengArb
36.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 82%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chengdu Rongcheng
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chengdu Rongcheng
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 82¢ nets 8180 bps before fees.

Dalian Yingbo FC
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dalian Yingbo FC
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
Beijing Guoan
12%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 39%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beijing Guoan
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beijing Guoan
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$336
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76¢.

Qingdao West Coast
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qingdao West Coast
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$884
Trade this on Polymarket
Shenzhen Peng City
2.8%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shenzhen Peng City
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shenzhen Peng City
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Zhejiang
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zhejiang
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket
Dalian Yingbo
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dalian Yingbo
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Henan
2.3%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Henan
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Henan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Show 16 more outcomes
Liaoning Tieren
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liaoning Tieren
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yunnan Yukun
1.7%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yunnan Yukun
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yunnan Yukun
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Shandong Taishan
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shandong Taishan
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Liaoning Tieren FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liaoning Tieren FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Qingdao West Coast FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qingdao West Coast FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Qingdao West Coast FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qingdao Hainiu FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Shanghai Port FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shandong Taishan FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Shanghai Port FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shanghai Shenhua FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Shanghai Port FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shanghai Port FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Wuhan Three Towns FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wuhan Three Towns FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Zhejiang FC
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zhejiang FC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Shanghai Shenhua
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shanghai Shenhua
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Polymarket
Shanghai Port
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shanghai Port
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Polymarket
Chongqing Tonglianglong
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Chengdu Rongcheng on Polymarket at 0.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 82¢ (8180 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 30, 2026, 2:58 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 30, 2026, 2:58 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Qingdao Hainiu
  • Wuhan Three Towns
  • Chengdu Rongcheng

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Qingdao Hainiu for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)". Qingdao Hainiu leads at 98.6%. Next is Wuhan Three Towns at 92.7%. $20K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Chinese Super League at the conclusion of the 2026 Chinese Super League season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Chinese Super League for the following season through their final standing in the 2026 Chinese Super League, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Chinese Super League. If the 2026 Chinese Super League season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Chinese Super League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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