The Prediction Markets

Choosin' Texas weeks at #1: 2026

Closes
Dec 26, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$189K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 25 weeks 91%

Next is At least 26 weeks at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 25 weeks
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 25 weeks
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 26 weeks
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 26 weeks
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 27 weeks
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 27 weeks
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28 weeks
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28 weeks
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 29 weeks
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 29 weeks
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30 weeks
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30 weeks
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 31 weeks
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 31 weeks
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 32 weeks
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 32 weeks
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 33 weeks
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 33 weeks
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 34 weeks
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 34 weeks
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 35 weeks
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 35 weeks
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 36 weeks
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 36 weeks
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 25 weeks
  • At least 26 weeks
  • At least 27 weeks

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Choosin' Texas weeks at #1: 2026". At least 25 weeks leads at 91%. Next is At least 26 weeks at 86%. $189K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 26, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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