The Prediction Markets

Chris Lake Streams in 2026

Closes
Jan 2, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 250M 99%

Next is Above 275M at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 250M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 57s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 275M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 275M
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 400M
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 400M
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300M
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 325M
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 325M
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 375M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 375M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 425M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 425M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 450M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 450M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 475M
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 475M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 500M
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 525M
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 525M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 550.0M
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 550.0M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 575.0M
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 575.0M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 600.0M
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 600.0M
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 625.0M
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 625.0M
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 250M
  • Above 275M
  • Above 400M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Chris Lake Streams in 2026". Above 250M leads at 99%. Next is Above 275M at 98%. $28K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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