The Prediction Markets

Closest Governor race in 2026?

Closes
Jan 20, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$128K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Georgia 18.1%

Next is Nevada at 10%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Georgia 18.1%Nevada 10%Ohio 8.9%Kansas 8.3%Texas 8.1%19 others 46.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Georgia
18.1%
Kalshi 18%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Georgia
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nevada
10%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nevada
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ohio
8.9%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ohio
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
8.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kansas
8.3%
Kalshi 8.2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas
8.1%
Kalshi 8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wisconsin
7.7%
Kalshi 7.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Florida
7.1%
Kalshi 7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florida
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oregon
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vermont
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vermont
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nebraska
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nebraska
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
Iowa
2.9%
Kalshi 2.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iowa
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alaska
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alaska
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oklahoma
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
New Hampshire
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
South Carolina
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Carolina
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Arizona
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Mexico
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Kalshi
Maine
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maine
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
New York
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Colorado
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colorado
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
South Dakota
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Dakota
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pennsylvania
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official state or local election division websites, the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within, official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Georgia
  • Nevada
  • Ohio

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Georgia leads at 18.1%. Next is Nevada at 10%. $128K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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