The Prediction Markets

CMA Awards: Entertainer of the Year

Closes
Nov 18, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Ella Langley 75.1%

Next is Lainey Wilson at 12.2%. The venues differ most on Cody Johnson (Polymarket 3.4%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.4-point gap.

Ella Langley 75.1%Lainey Wilson 12.2%Tie 4.6%Luke Combs 3.6%Cody Johnson 2.3%Chris Stapleton 2.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ella Langley
75.1%
Polymarket 82%(74% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 84%(76.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
82%
Fair, margin removed
74%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
84%
Fair, margin removed
76.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 81¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.

Lainey Wilson
12.2%
Polymarket 14.5%(13.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 13%(11.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lainey Wilson
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$649
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lainey Wilson
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

Tie
4.6%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Combs
3.6%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luke Combs
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Combs
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$821
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Cody Johnson
2.3%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cody Johnson
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cody Johnson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Chris Stapleton
2.2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Stapleton
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Stapleton
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cmaawards.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CMA Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ella Langley
  • Lainey Wilson
  • Tie

Live prices for Ella Langley

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CMA Awards: Entertainer of the Year". Ella Langley leads at 75.1%. Next is Lainey Wilson at 12.2%. $25K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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