The Prediction Markets

CMA Awards: Music Video of the Year

Closes
Nov 18, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Choosin' Texas 53.8%

Next is Gary at 26.5%. The venues differ most on Choosin' Texas (Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 57%), a 4.5-point gap.

Choosin' Texas 53.8%Gary 26.5%White Horse 11.3%The Fall 4.5%Tie 2%Dry Spell 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Choosin' Texas
53.8%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 57%(56.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin’ Texas
Last price
57%
Fair, margin removed
56.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 52¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 56¢.

Gary
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gary (Stephen Wilson Jr.)
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gary
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.

White Horse
11.3%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
White Horse (Chris Stapleton)
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
White Horse
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

The Fall
4.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Fall (Cody Johnson)
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Fall
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.8¢.

Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dry Spell
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dry Spell (Kacey Musgraves)
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dry Spell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.9¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cmaawards.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CMA Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Choosin' Texas
  • Gary
  • White Horse

Live prices for Choosin' Texas

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CMA Awards: Music Video of the Year". Choosin' Texas leads at 53.8%. Next is Gary at 26.5%. $19K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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