The Prediction Markets

CMA Musician of the Year 2026

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Paul Franklin 44.5%

Next is Charlie Worsham at 32.3%. The venues differ most on Tom Bukovac (Polymarket 4.6%, Kalshi 8%), a 3.5-point gap.

Paul Franklin 44.5%Charlie Worsham 32.3%Rob McNelley 8.6%Jenee Fleenor 7.1%Tom Bukovac 5.7%Tie 1.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paul Franklin
44.5%
Polymarket 48%(44.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 48%(43.6% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Franklin
Last price
48%
Fair, margin removed
44.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Franklin
Last price
48%
Fair, margin removed
43.6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 43¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 48¢.

Charlie Worsham
32.3%
Polymarket 34.5%(32.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 36%(32.7% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlie Worsham
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
32.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charlie Worsham
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
32.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

Rob McNelley
8.6%
Polymarket 10.6%(9.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rob McNelley
Last price
10.6%
Fair, margin removed
9.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19.4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$515 (5.15x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rob McNelley
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Jenee Fleenor
7.1%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenee Fleenor
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jenee Fleenor
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Tom Bukovac
5.7%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Bukovac
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Bukovac
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.7¢.

Tie
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cmaawards.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CMA Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul Franklin
  • Charlie Worsham
  • Rob McNelley

Live prices for Paul Franklin

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CMA Musician of the Year 2026". Paul Franklin leads at 44.5%. Next is Charlie Worsham at 32.3%. $15K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

The Country Music Association Awards are presented annually by the Country Music Association (CMA) to honor outstanding achievement in country music. The 60th Annual Country Music Association Awards are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed musician who wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Musician of the Year. If a listed musician is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Musician of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning musician whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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