The Prediction Markets

CMA Song of the Year 2026

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Choosin' Texas 82.5%

Next is Be Her at 5.2%. The venues differ most on Choosin' Texas (Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 92%), a 4.0-point gap.

Choosin' Texas 82.5%Be Her 5.2%Dry Spell 4%Tie 3.4%Beautiful Things 2.8%Gary 2.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Choosin' Texas
82.5%
Polymarket 88%(84.1% fair)polled, 46s agoKalshi 92%(79.3% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
Last price
88%
Fair, margin removed
84.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin’ Texas
Last price
92%
Fair, margin removed
79.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 91¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 93¢.

Be Her
5.2%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 46s agoKalshi 6%(5.2% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Be Her (Ella Langley)
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$327
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Be Her
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$506
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Dry Spell
4%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 6%(5.2% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dry Spell (Kacey Musgraves)
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dry Spell
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.1¢.

Tie
3.4%
Kalshi 4%(3.4% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Beautiful Things
2.8%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 46s agoKalshi 4%(3.4% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beautiful Things (Megan Moroney)
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beautiful Things
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Gary
2.1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 46s agoKalshi 4%(3.4% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gary (Stephen Wilson Jr.)
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gary
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cmaawards.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CMA Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 19, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Choosin' Texas
  • Be Her
  • Dry Spell

Live prices for Choosin' Texas

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CMA Song of the Year 2026". Choosin' Texas leads at 82.5%. Next is Be Her at 5.2%. $7K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

The Country Music Association Awards are presented annually by the Country Music Association (CMA) to honor outstanding achievement in country music. The 60th Annual Country Music Association Awards are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Song of the Year. If a listed song is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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