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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 83.5%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds83.5%83.5%78¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed89¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $112 (1.12x)O/U 0.5 Rounds83.5%Polymarket 83.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
83.5%
83.5%
78¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
89¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 83.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds57.5%57.5%53¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed62¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)O/U 1.5 Rounds57.5%Polymarket 57.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57.5%
57.5%
53¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
62¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 57.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
Ends before Round 3?53%53%51¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Ends before Round 3?53%Polymarket 53%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Ends before Round 3?
53%
53%
51¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Ends before Round 3?
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds44%44%43¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed45¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $222 (2.22x)O/U 2.5 Rounds44%Polymarket 44%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
44%
44%
43¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
45¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $110
Fight won by KO/TKO?37.5%37.5%32¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Fight won by KO/TKO?37.5%Polymarket 37.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
37.5%
37.5%
32¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 37.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
Asaf Chopurov by KO/TKO/DQ35%Not listed35%33¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 26s ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Asaf Chopurov by KO/TKO/DQ35%Kalshi 35%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Asaf Chopurov by KO/TKO/DQ
35%
Not listed
35%
33¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Asaf Chopurov by KO/TKO/DQ
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Asaf Chopurov by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $1K
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?33.5%33.5%29¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?
33.5%
33.5%
29¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
Decision or Draw33.5%33.5%28¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Decision or Draw33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Decision or Draw
33.5%
33.5%
28¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Decision or Draw
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Fight to Go the Distance?33.5%33.5%32¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Fight to Go the Distance?33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
33.5%
33.5%
32¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Fight won by decision?33.5%33.5%28¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Fight won by decision?33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?
33.5%
33.5%
28¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Fight won by decision?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Ends before Round 2?30.5%30.5%29¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Ends before Round 2?30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ends before Round 2?
30.5%
30.5%
29¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ends before Round 2?
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
Fight won by submission?29%29%24¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Fight won by submission?29%Polymarket 29%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Fight won by submission?
29%
29%
24¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Fight won by submission?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
Chopurov in Round 127.5%27.5%22¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed33¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Chopurov in Round 127.5%Polymarket 27.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Chopurov in Round 1
27.5%
27.5%
22¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
33¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Chopurov in Round 1
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chopurov in Round 1
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
Asaf Chopurov by Decision24%Not listed24%24¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 26s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Asaf Chopurov by Decision24%Kalshi 24%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Asaf Chopurov by Decision
24%
Not listed
24%
24¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Asaf Chopurov by Decision
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Asaf Chopurov by Decision
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $1K
Asaf Chopurov by Submission23%Not listed23%22¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 26s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Asaf Chopurov by Submission23%Kalshi 23%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Asaf Chopurov by Submission
23%
Not listed
23%
22¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Asaf Chopurov by Submission
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Asaf Chopurov by Submission
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $738
Chopurov in Round 221%21%16¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Chopurov in Round 221%Polymarket 21%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Chopurov in Round 2
21%
21%
16¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Chopurov in Round 2
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chopurov in Round 2
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov16.5%16.5%16¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov16.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
16.5%
16.5%
16¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $3K
Chopurov in Round 311.5%11.5%6¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Chopurov in Round 311.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Chopurov in Round 3
11.5%
11.5%
6¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Chopurov in Round 3
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chopurov in Round 3
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Colby Thicknesse by Decision8%Not listed8%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 26s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Colby Thicknesse by Decision8%Kalshi 8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Colby Thicknesse by Decision
8%
Not listed
8%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Colby Thicknesse by Decision
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colby Thicknesse by Decision
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $762
Colby Thicknesse by Submission6%Not listed6%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 26s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Colby Thicknesse by Submission6%Kalshi 6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Colby Thicknesse by Submission
6%
Not listed
6%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Colby Thicknesse by Submission
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colby Thicknesse by Submission
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $430
Thicknesse in Round 16%6%3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Thicknesse in Round 16%Polymarket 6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Thicknesse in Round 1
6%
6%
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Thicknesse in Round 1
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thicknesse in Round 1
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Thicknesse in Round 25.5%5.5%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Thicknesse in Round 25.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Thicknesse in Round 2
5.5%
5.5%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Thicknesse in Round 2
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thicknesse in Round 2
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Thicknesse in Round 35.5%5.5%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Thicknesse in Round 35.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Thicknesse in Round 3
5.5%
5.5%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Thicknesse in Round 3
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thicknesse in Round 3
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?5.5%5.5%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?
5.5%
5.5%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Colby Thicknesse by KO/TKO/DQ5%Not listed5%3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 26s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Colby Thicknesse by KO/TKO/DQ5%Kalshi 5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Colby Thicknesse by KO/TKO/DQ
5%
Not listed
5%
3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Colby Thicknesse by KO/TKO/DQ
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colby Thicknesse by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Draw/No Contest2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 26s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest2%Kalshi 2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $60
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Ends before Round 3?
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 83.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 57.5%. $9K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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