The Prediction Markets

College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Nov 8 AP Poll

Closes
Jan 14, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Miami (FL) 34%

Next is Ohio St. at 18.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Miami (FL) 34%Ohio St. 18.9%Notre Dame 17%Georgia 10.4%Indiana 3.8%8 others 15.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Miami (FL)
34%
Kalshi 36%(34% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miami (FL)
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Ohio St.
18.9%
Kalshi 20%(18.9% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ohio St.
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
18.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Notre Dame
17%
Kalshi 18%(17% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Notre Dame
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Kalshi
Georgia
10.4%
Kalshi 11%(10.4% fair)polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Georgia
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
3.8%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
LSU
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
LSU
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Oregon
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas Tech
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas Tech
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alabama
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alabama
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Oklahoma
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas A&M
1.4%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas A&M
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AP College Football Rankings

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Miami (FL)
  • Ohio St.
  • Notre Dame

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Nov 8 AP Poll". Miami (FL) leads at 34%. Next is Ohio St. at 18.9%. $3K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 14, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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