The Prediction Markets

College Football Conference USA Championship Winner

Closes
Jan 3, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$257K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Liberty 42%

Next is Louisiana Tech at 31.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Liberty 42%Louisiana Tech 31.7%Jacksonville St. 15.7%Middle Tennessee 2.2%New Mexico St. 2.1%6 others 6.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Liberty
42%
Kalshi 59%(42% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liberty
Last price
59%
Fair, margin removed
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Kalshi
Louisiana Tech
31.7%
Kalshi 44.5%(31.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louisiana Tech
Last price
44.5%
Fair, margin removed
31.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacksonville St.
15.7%
Kalshi 22%(15.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacksonville St.
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
15.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Middle Tennessee
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Middle Tennessee
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Mexico St.
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Mexico St.
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Western Kentucky
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Western Kentucky
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Missouri St.
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Missouri St.
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaware
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaware
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Florida International
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florida International
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kennesaw St.
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kennesaw St.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Houston
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Houston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Liberty
  • Louisiana Tech
  • Jacksonville St.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "College Football Conference USA Championship Winner". Liberty leads at 42%. Next is Louisiana Tech at 31.7%. $257K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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