The Prediction Markets

College Football: Louisville Regular Season Wins

Closes
Dec 20, 2026, in 58 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

5+ wins 97%

Next is 6+ wins at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
5+ wins
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
5+ wins
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
6+ wins
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
6+ wins
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Kalshi
7+ wins
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
7+ wins
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
8+ wins
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
8+ wins
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
9+ wins
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
9+ wins
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5+ wins
  • 6+ wins
  • 7+ wins

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "College Football: Louisville Regular Season Wins". 5+ wins leads at 97%. Next is 6+ wins at 86%. $16K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 20, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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