The Prediction Markets

Colorado Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Weiser, 6+ pts 95.4%

Next is Weiser, 15+ pts at 94.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Weiser, 6+ pts
95.4%
Kalshi 95.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 6+ pts
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 15+ pts
94.9%
Kalshi 94.9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 98.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 15+ pts
Last price
94.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.1¢
Sell Yes
92.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 12+ pts
94.1%
Kalshi 94.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 12+ pts
Last price
94.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 3+ pts
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 3+ pts
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 9+ pts
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 9+ pts
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 18+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 96.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 18+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.1¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 21+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 21+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 24+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 24+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 27+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 27+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Weiser, 30+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 30+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Democrat 20-25%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
14.6%
Polymarket 14.6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
14.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Weiser, 33+ pts
13.7%
Kalshi 13.7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 33+ pts
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
10.7%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40%+
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 15.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40%+
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$645 (6.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Weiser, 36+ pts
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weiser, 36+ pts
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$918
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Weiser, 6+ pts
  • Weiser, 15+ pts
  • Weiser, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Weiser, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Colorado Governor margin of victory". Weiser, 6+ pts leads at 95.4%. Next is Weiser, 15+ pts at 94.9%. $28K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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