The Prediction Markets

Colorado Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Hickenlooper, 8+ pts 93.5%

Next is Hickenlooper, 10+ pts at 92.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 8+ pts
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 8+ pts
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 10+ pts
92.7%
Kalshi 92.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 10+ pts
Last price
92.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
92.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 12+ pts
91.2%
Kalshi 91.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 12+ pts
Last price
91.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
91.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 14+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 14+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 16+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, just nowBest Yes 94.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 16+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.7¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 18+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 90.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 18+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.2¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 20+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 20+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 22+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 22+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 24+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 24+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 26+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 26+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$795
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Hickenlooper, 28+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 28+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 30+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 30+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper 25-30%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hickenlooper 25-30%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hickenlooper 30%+
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hickenlooper 30%+
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hickenlooper 20-25%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hickenlooper 20-25%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hickenlooper 15-20%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hickenlooper 15-20%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hickenlooper 5-10%
13.2%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hickenlooper 5-10%
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$402 (4.02x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Polymarket
Hickenlooper, 32+ pts
12.2%
Kalshi 12.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 32+ pts
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper 10-15%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hickenlooper 10-15%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$849
Trade this on Polymarket
Hickenlooper, 34+ pts
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 34+ pts
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper, 36+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hickenlooper, 36+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hickenlooper 0-5%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hickenlooper 0-5%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
Baisley Wins
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baisley Wins
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hickenlooper, 8+ pts
  • Hickenlooper, 10+ pts
  • Hickenlooper, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hickenlooper, 8+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Colorado Senate margin of victory". Hickenlooper, 8+ pts leads at 93.5%. Next is Hickenlooper, 10+ pts at 92.7%. $18K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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