The Prediction Markets

Colorado's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Kiros, 48+ pts 89%

Next is Kiros, 51+ pts at 84%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kiros, 48+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 94.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 48+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.3¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiros, 51+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 51+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiros, 54+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 54+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiros, 57+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 57+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiros, 60+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 60+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiros, 63+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 63+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 65-70%
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $258 (2.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38.8¢
Sell Yes
35.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$258 (2.58x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kiros, 66+ pts
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 66+ pts
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 70-75%
24.2%
Polymarket 24.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $362 (3.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
24.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.6¢
Sell Yes
20.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$362 (3.62x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60-65%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Kiros, 69+ pts
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 69+ pts
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiros, 72+ pts
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiros, 72+ pts
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
7.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50-55%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$785
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-35%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-35%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 75%+
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75%+
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$639
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-45%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-45%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$451
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kiros, 48+ pts
  • Kiros, 51+ pts
  • Kiros, 54+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Kiros, 48+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Colorado's 1st District margin of victory". Kiros, 48+ pts leads at 89%. Next is Kiros, 51+ pts at 84%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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