The Prediction Markets

Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$47K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Hurd, 1+ pts 69%

Next is Hurd, 3+ pts at 53%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hurd, 1+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurd, 1+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Hurd, 3+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurd, 3+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hurd, 6+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurd, 6+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hurd, 9+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurd, 9+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Romero, 1+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Romero, 1+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Romero, 3+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Romero, 3+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
19.4%
Polymarket 19.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
19.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
16.6%
Polymarket 16.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $524 (5.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
16.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.1¢
Sell Yes
14.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$524 (5.24x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Romero, 6+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Romero, 6+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hurd, 15+ pts
9.6%
Kalshi 9.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurd, 15+ pts
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hurd, 18+ pts
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurd, 18+ pts
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$821
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$966
Trade this on Polymarket
Hurd, 12+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurd, 12+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$936
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12%+
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12%+
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$535
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$462
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hurd, 1+ pts
  • Hurd, 3+ pts
  • Republican 0-3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hurd, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory". Hurd, 1+ pts leads at 69%. Next is Hurd, 3+ pts at 53%. $47K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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