The Prediction Markets

Colorado's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Crow, 18+ pts 91.8%

Next is Crow, 21+ pts at 90.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Crow, 18+ pts
91.8%
Kalshi 91.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 18+ pts
Last price
91.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
91.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crow, 21+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 21+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crow, 24+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 24+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Kalshi
Crow, 27+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 27+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Crow, 30+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 30+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi
Crow, 33+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 33+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crow, 36+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 36+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Crow, 39+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 39+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Crow, 42+ pts
11.2%
Kalshi 11.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crow, 42+ pts
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-15%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $787 (7.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$787 (7.87x)
Volume
$566
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$458
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Colorado Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Crow, 18+ pts
  • Crow, 21+ pts
  • Crow, 24+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Crow, 18+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Colorado's 6th District margin of victory". Crow, 18+ pts leads at 91.8%. Next is Crow, 21+ pts at 90.1%. $28K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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