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What the markets expect
Patrick Mahomes 57.5%
Next is Malik Nabers at 10%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Patrick Mahomes57.5%69%57.5% fair68¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 49s ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Patrick Mahomes57.5%Kalshi 69%(57.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Patrick Mahomes
57.5%
69%
57.5% fair
68¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Patrick Mahomes
57.5%
Kalshi 69%(57.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Mahomes
- Last price
- 69%
- Fair, margin removed
- 57.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $202K
Malik Nabers10%12%10% fair10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 49s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Malik Nabers10%Kalshi 12%(10% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Malik Nabers
10%
12%
10% fair
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Malik Nabers
10%
Kalshi 12%(10% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Malik Nabers
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $138K
Fred Warner6.7%8%6.7% fair7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 49s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Fred Warner6.7%Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Fred Warner
6.7%
8%
6.7% fair
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Fred Warner
6.7%
Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fred Warner
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $161K
Tank Dell4.2%5%4.2% fair2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 49s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Tank Dell4.2%Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tank Dell
4.2%
5%
4.2% fair
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tank Dell
4.2%
Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tank Dell
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $131K
Kirk Cousins2.5%3%2.5% fair2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 49s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Kirk Cousins2.5%Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kirk Cousins
2.5%
3%
2.5% fair
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kirk Cousins
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kirk Cousins
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $125K
Kyler Murray2.5%3%2.5% fair3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 49s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Kyler Murray2.5%Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kyler Murray
2.5%
3%
2.5% fair
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kyler Murray
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyler Murray
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $133K
Travis Hunter2.5%3%2.5% fair3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 49s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Travis Hunter2.5%Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Travis Hunter
2.5%
3%
2.5% fair
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Travis Hunter
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Travis Hunter
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $102K
Deshaun Watson1.7%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 49s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Deshaun Watson1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Deshaun Watson
1.7%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Deshaun Watson
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Deshaun Watson
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $63K
George Kittle1.7%2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 49s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)George Kittle1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
George Kittle
1.7%
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
George Kittle
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Kittle
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $52K
Joe Burrow1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 49s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Joe Burrow1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Joe Burrow
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Joe Burrow
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joe Burrow
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $166K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Aaron Donald0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Aaron Donald0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Aaron Donald
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Aaron Donald
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aaron Donald
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $206K
Brock Bowers0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Brock Bowers0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brock Bowers
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brock Bowers
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brock Bowers
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $28K
Cam Skattebo0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cam Skattebo0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cam Skattebo
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cam Skattebo
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cam Skattebo
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $120
Daniel Jones0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Daniel Jones0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Daniel Jones
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Daniel Jones
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniel Jones
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $100K
Geno Smith0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Geno Smith0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Geno Smith
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Geno Smith
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Geno Smith
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $23K
Jonathon Brooks0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jonathon Brooks0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jonathon Brooks
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jonathon Brooks
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jonathon Brooks
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $28K
Micah Parsons0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Micah Parsons0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Micah Parsons
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Micah Parsons
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Micah Parsons
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $54K
Michael Penix Jr.0.8%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 49s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michael Penix Jr.0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michael Penix Jr.
0.8%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michael Penix Jr.
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael Penix Jr.
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $116K
Nick Bosa0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Nick Bosa0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nick Bosa
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nick Bosa
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nick Bosa
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $22K
Tie/Co-Winners0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tie/Co-Winners0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie/Co-Winners
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $51K
Tucker Kraft0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 49s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tucker Kraft0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tucker Kraft
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 49s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tucker Kraft
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tucker Kraft
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $82K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Malik Nabers
- Fred Warner
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Comeback Player of the Year Winner". Patrick Mahomes leads at 57.5%. Next is Malik Nabers at 10%. $2.0M has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 21, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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