The Prediction Markets

Companies added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Moderna 84%

Next is Tenet Healthcare at 69%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Moderna
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moderna
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Tenet Healthcare
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenet Healthcare
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$741
Trade this on Kalshi
Woodward
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Woodward
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Kalshi
X-energy
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
X-energy
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Royal Gold
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Royal Gold
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$846
Trade this on Kalshi
Oklo
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oklo
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
IonQ
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
IonQ
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Fervo Energy
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fervo Energy
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
US Foods
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
US Foods
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MSCI

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moderna
  • Tenet Healthcare
  • Woodward

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Companies added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4?". Moderna leads at 84%. Next is Tenet Healthcare at 69%. $5K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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