The Prediction Markets

Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

DICK'S Sporting Goods 93%

Next is The Carlyle Group at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
DICK'S Sporting Goods
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 4 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
DICK'S Sporting Goods
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
35¢
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi
The Carlyle Group
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 4 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
The Carlyle Group
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
40¢
Volume
$979
Trade this on Kalshi
Watsco
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 4 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Watsco
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
35¢
Volume
$537
Trade this on Kalshi
Fidelity National Financial
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 4 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Fidelity National Financial
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
35¢
Volume
$683
Trade this on Kalshi
The Cooper Companies
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Cooper Companies
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Deckers Outdoor
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deckers Outdoor
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Kalshi
McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares)
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 4 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares)
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
40¢
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyatt Hotels (Class A)
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyatt Hotels (Class A)
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Circle Internet Group (Class A)
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Circle Internet Group (Class A)
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rollins
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rollins
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Corebridge Financial
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corebridge Financial
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
United Airlines Holdings
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Airlines Holdings
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MSCI

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • DICK'S Sporting Goods
  • The Carlyle Group
  • Watsco

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?". DICK'S Sporting Goods leads at 93%. Next is The Carlyle Group at 90%. $5K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets