The Prediction Markets

Companies removed from the S&P 500 in Q4?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Kenvue 92%

Next is AES at 33%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Kenvue
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Kenvue
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
AES
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
AES
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Norwegian Cruise Line
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norwegian Cruise Line
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Paramount Skydance
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paramount Skydance
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Real Estate
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Real Estate
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Deckers Outdoor
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deckers Outdoor
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Brown-Forman
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brown-Forman
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormel Foods
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormel Foods
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
A. O. Smith
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
A. O. Smith
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dow
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dow
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Hasbro
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hasbro
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
LyondellBasell Industries
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
LyondellBasell Industries
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Skyworks Solutions
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skyworks Solutions
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Solventum
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Solventum
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: S&P Global

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kenvue
  • AES
  • Norwegian Cruise Line

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Companies removed from the S&P 500 in Q4?". Kenvue leads at 92%. Next is AES at 33%. $3K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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