The Prediction Markets

CONCACAF Nations League 2026-27 Winner

Closes
Mar 31, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$180K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

USA 50%

Next is Mexico at 36.7%. The venues differ most on Panama (Polymarket 9.4%, Kalshi 1%), a 8.4-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
USA
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
USA
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
MexicoArb
36.7%
Polymarket 42%polled, 24s agoKalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mexico
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 36¢ and selling on Polymarket at 41¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Spain
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spain
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
United States
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
England
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
England
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
France
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Portugal
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Canada
10.7%
Polymarket 12%polled, 24s agoKalshi 9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canada
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Canada
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Curacao
10.7%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 24s agoKalshi 13%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Curacao
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Curacao
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11.8¢.

Panama
7.2%
Polymarket 9.4%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Panama
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$538 (5.38x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Panama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Show 23 more outcomes
GuatemalaArb
6.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 24s agoKalshi 9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guatemala
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$471
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guatemala
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Haiti
4.5%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 24s agoKalshi 4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Haiti
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Haiti
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

El Salvador
3.1%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
El Salvador
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$596
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
El Salvador
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Greece
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Netherlands
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dominican Republic
2.6%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominican Republic
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominican Republic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Trinidad and Tobago
2.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 24s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trinidad and Tobago
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trinidad and Tobago
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Italy
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Martinique
1.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 24s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martinique
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martinique
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Suriname
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Suriname
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Suriname
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Belgium
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Croatia
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Croatia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Kalshi
Denmark
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Germany
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Norway
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Turkiye
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turkiye
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Wales
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wales
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Honduras
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Honduras
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Honduras
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Nicaragua
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 24s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicaragua
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nicaragua
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Costa Rica
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Costa Rica
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Costa Rica
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jamaica
0.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamaica
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamaica
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Czechia
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Czechia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Serbia
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Serbia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Mexico on Kalshi at 36¢, sell on Polymarket at 41¢ (500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 31, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 31, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • USA
  • Mexico
  • Spain

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list USA for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CONCACAF Nations League 2026-27 Winner". USA leads at 50%. Next is Mexico at 36.7%. $180K has traded across 33 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League per the rules of CONCACAF (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League is cancelled, postponed after April 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from CONCACAF; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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