The Prediction Markets

Connecticut Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Lamont, 8+ pts 96.9%

Next is Lamont, 11+ pts at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lamont, 8+ pts
96.9%
Kalshi 96.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 8+ pts
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Lamont, 11+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 11+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92.3¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Lamont, 14+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 14+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lamont, 17+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 17+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Kalshi
Lamont, 20+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 20+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Kalshi
Lamont, 23+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 23+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$856
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lamont, 26+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 26+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 30%+
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lamont, 29+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 29+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lamont, 32+ pts
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lamont, 32+ pts
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lamont, 8+ pts
  • Lamont, 11+ pts
  • Lamont, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Lamont, 8+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Connecticut Governor margin of victory". Lamont, 8+ pts leads at 96.9%. Next is Lamont, 11+ pts at 81%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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