The Prediction Markets

Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$54K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bronin, 22+ pts 90.2%

Next is Bronin, 25+ pts at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bronin, 22+ pts
90.2%
Kalshi 90.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 93.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 22+ pts
Last price
90.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.9¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bronin, 25+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 25+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bronin, 28+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 28+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bronin, 31+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 31+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bronin, 34+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 34+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bronin, 37+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 37+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bronin, 40+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 40+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Bronin, 43+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 43+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
7.9%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $826 (8.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.1¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$826 (8.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bronin, 46+ pts
5.3%
Kalshi 5.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bronin, 46+ pts
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50%+
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50%+
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$804
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$927
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-20%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-20%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bronin, 22+ pts
  • Bronin, 25+ pts
  • Bronin, 28+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bronin, 22+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory". Bronin, 22+ pts leads at 90.2%. Next is Bronin, 25+ pts at 81%. $54K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets