The Prediction Markets

Connecticut's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Courtney, 8+ pts 96.8%

Next is Courtney, 11+ pts at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Courtney, 8+ pts
96.8%
Kalshi 96.8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 8+ pts
Last price
96.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
91.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Kalshi
Courtney, 11+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 11+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Courtney, 14+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 95.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 14+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.2¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Courtney, 17+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 17+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Courtney, 20+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 20+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Courtney, 23+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 23+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
35.4%
Polymarket 35.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 37.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $268 (2.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
35.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37.3¢
Sell Yes
33.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$268 (2.68x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Courtney, 26+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 26+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Courtney, 29+ pts
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 29+ pts
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 30-35%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Courtney, 32+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtney, 32+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$572
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Courtney, 8+ pts
  • Courtney, 11+ pts
  • Courtney, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Courtney, 8+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Connecticut's 2nd District margin of victory". Courtney, 8+ pts leads at 96.8%. Next is Courtney, 11+ pts at 90%. $25K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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