The Prediction Markets

Connecticut's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

DeLauro, 14+ pts 89%

Next is DeLauro, 17+ pts at 84%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
DeLauro, 14+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 93.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 14+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.4¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
DeLauro, 17+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 94.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 17+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.8¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Kalshi
DeLauro, 20+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 20+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
DeLauro, 23+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 23+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
DeLauro, 26+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 26+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Kalshi
DeLauro, 29+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 29+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
DeLauro, 32+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 32+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35%+
20.4%
Polymarket 20.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $413 (4.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
20.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.2¢
Sell Yes
16.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$413 (4.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
DeLauro, 35+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 35+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$823
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
DeLauro, 38+ pts
8.2%
Kalshi 8.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeLauro, 38+ pts
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$712
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Connecticut Secretary of the State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • DeLauro, 14+ pts
  • DeLauro, 17+ pts
  • DeLauro, 20+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list DeLauro, 14+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Connecticut's 3rd District margin of victory". DeLauro, 14+ pts leads at 89%. Next is DeLauro, 17+ pts at 84%. $23K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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