The Prediction Markets

Constellation Brands beer shipments in Q3

Closes
Jul 29, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 86 million 98%

Next is Above 90 million at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 86 million
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 26s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 86 million
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90 million
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 26s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90 million
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 92 million
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 26s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 92 million
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 94 million
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 94 million
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 96 million
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 96 million
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 98 million
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 98 million
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100 million
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100 million
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 102 million
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 102 million
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$706
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 104 million
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 26s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 104 million
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 110 million
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110 million
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 106 million
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 106 million
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 86 million
  • Above 90 million
  • Above 92 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Constellation Brands beer shipments in Q3". Above 86 million leads at 98%. Next is Above 90 million at 97%. $14K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets