The Prediction Markets

Copa America 2028 Host

Closes
Jun 1, 2028, in 20 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

United States 89%

Next is USA at 70.7%. The venues differ most on Argentina (Polymarket 3.6%, Kalshi 32%), a 28-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
United States
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
USA
70.7%
Kalshi 10%polled, 34s agoKalshi 91%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
USA
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
USA
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
ArgentinaArb
24.9%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 34s agoKalshi 32%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Argentina
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 1820 bps before fees.

Peru
12%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 34s agoKalshi 15%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peru
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Peru
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

BrazilArb
11%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 34s agoKalshi 17%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brazil
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brazil
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 690 bps before fees.

EcuadorArb
7.6%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 34s agoKalshi 14%polled, 34s agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ecuador
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ecuador
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ecuador
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

Colombia
6.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 34s agoKalshi 9%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colombia
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$113
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colombia
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.1¢.

MexicoArb
6.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 34s agoKalshi 9%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mexico
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 810 bps before fees.

Guatemala
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guatemala
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Argentina, Uruguay, or Paraguay
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina, Uruguay, or Paraguay
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
Venezuela
3.7%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 34s agoKalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Costa Rica
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa Rica
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Curacao
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Curacao
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamaica
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamaica
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Bolivia
1.7%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 34s agoKalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolivia
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bolivia
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.1¢.

Uruguay
1.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 34s agoKalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Uruguay
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Uruguay
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Paraguay
1.4%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 34s agoKalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paraguay
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paraguay
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.1¢.

Canada
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Canada
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi
El Salvador
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
El Salvador
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
ChileArb
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 34s agoKalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chile
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chile
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Haiti
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haiti
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Honduras
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honduras
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Panama
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Panama
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Trinidad and Tobago
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trinidad and Tobago
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Argentina on Polymarket at 6.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 25¢ (1820 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jun 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Aug 15, 2028, 2:19 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Semafor
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jun 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Aug 15, 2028, 2:19 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • United States
  • USA
  • Argentina

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list United States for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Copa America 2028 Host". United States leads at 89%. Next is USA at 70.7%. $10K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the country officially announced as the host of the 2028 Copa America. A qualifying announcement means an official confirmation by CONMEBOL of the country selected to host the tournament. Bid proposals, recommendations by member associations, and media speculation about the decision will not qualify on their own. If the tournament is officially announced as being co-hosted by more than one country, this market will resolve to the country CONMEBOL designates as the primary host; if no primary host is designated, this market will resolve to "Other". A qualifying announcement before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of any subsequent change to the host or to the scheduled dates of the tournament. If no host is officially announced by June 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from CONMEBOL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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