What are the odds of Palmeiras in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Palmeiras is currently priced at 44.1% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Flamengo in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Flamengo is currently priced at 36.9% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Vasco da Gama in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Vasco da Gama is currently priced at 14.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Grêmio in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Grêmio is currently priced at 13% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Atletico Mineiro in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Atletico Mineiro is currently priced at 12.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Boca Juniors in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Boca Juniors is currently priced at 11% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Sao Paulo in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Sao Paulo is currently priced at 10.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Botafogo in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Botafogo is currently priced at 10.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Estudiantes de La Plata in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Estudiantes de La Plata is currently priced at 10% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Estudiantes LP in Copa Libertadores Champion?

Estudiantes LP is currently priced at 7.8% in prediction markets.

Copa Libertadores Champion

Full timeKickoff Mon, Feb 23, 12:00 PM UTCWaiting for the venues to settle

Traded: $77K
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: 1 min ago

What the markets expect

Palmeiras 44.1%

Next is Flamengo at 36.9%. The venues differ most on Fluminense (Polymarket 6.4%, Kalshi 1%), a 5.3-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

PalmeirasArb

44.1%

45.5%

45¢ bid, 46¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

61%

32¢ bid, 61¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

25.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $386 (3.86x)

PalmeirasArb

44.1%

Polymarket 46%polled, 4 min agoPolymarket 23.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 45.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $386 (3.86x)

Polymarket

Contract: Palmeiras
Last price: 46%
As of: Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes: 54¢
Sell Yes: 38¢
$100 on Yes pays: $185 (1.85x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Palmeiras
Last price: 23.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 25.9¢
Sell Yes: 21.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $386 (3.86x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Palmeiras
Last price: 45.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 46¢
Sell Yes: 45¢
$100 on Yes pays: $217 (2.17x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Palmeiras
Last price: 61%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 61¢
Sell Yes: 32¢
$100 on Yes pays: $164 (1.64x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 25.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 32¢ nets 610 bps before fees.

Flamengo

36.9%

24.5%

24¢ bid, 25¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

37%

23¢ bid, 65¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

25¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $400 (4.00x)

Flamengo

36.9%

Polymarket 56%polled, 4 min agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)

Polymarket

Contract: Flamengo
Last price: 56%
As of: Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes: 67¢
Sell Yes: 45¢
$100 on Yes pays: $149 (1.49x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Flamengo
Last price: 24.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 25¢
Sell Yes: 24¢
$100 on Yes pays: $400 (4.00x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Flamengo
Last price: 37%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 65¢
Sell Yes: 23¢
$100 on Yes pays: $154 (1.54x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

Vasco da Gama

14.5%

14¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

15¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Vasco da Gama

14.5%

Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Polymarket

Contract: Vasco da Gama
Last price: 14.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 14¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Grêmio

13%

7¢ bid, 19¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

19¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $526 (5.26x)

Grêmio

13%

Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)

Polymarket

Contract: Grêmio
Last price: 13%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 19¢
Sell Yes: 7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $526 (5.26x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Atletico Mineiro

Polymarket: “Atlético Mineiro”

12.5%

5¢ bid, 20¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

20¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Atletico Mineiro

12.5%

Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Polymarket

Contract: Atlético Mineiro
Last price: 12.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 20¢
Sell Yes: 5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $500 (5.00x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Boca Juniors

11%

10¢ bid, 11.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

11.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $840 (8.40x)

Boca Juniors

11%

Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)

Polymarket

Contract: Boca Juniors
Last price: 11%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 11.9¢
Sell Yes: 10¢
$100 on Yes pays: $840 (8.40x)
Volume: $944

Trade this on Polymarket

Sao Paulo

10.8%

1.6¢ bid, 20¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

20¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Sao Paulo

10.8%

Polymarket 10.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Polymarket

Contract: Sao Paulo
Last price: 10.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 20¢
Sell Yes: 1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $500 (5.00x)
Volume: $243

Trade this on Polymarket

Botafogo

10.5%

10¢ bid, 11¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

11¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Botafogo

10.5%

Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Polymarket

Contract: Botafogo
Last price: 10.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 11¢
Sell Yes: 10¢
$100 on Yes pays: $909 (9.09x)
Volume: $133

Trade this on Polymarket

Estudiantes de La Plata

10%

Not listed

10%

2¢ bid, 19¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

19¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $526 (5.26x)

Estudiantes de La Plata

10%

Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)

Kalshi

Contract: Estudiantes de La Plata
Last price: 10%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 19¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $526 (5.26x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Estudiantes LP

7.8%

5.6¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, 4 min ago

Not listed

10¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Estudiantes LP

7.8%

Polymarket 7.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Estudiantes LP
Last price: 7.8%
As of: Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 19 more outcomes

Velez Sarsfield

6.2%

0.2¢ bid, 12.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

12.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $820 (8.20x)

Velez Sarsfield

6.2%

Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)

Polymarket

Contract: Velez Sarsfield
Last price: 6.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 12.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $820 (8.20x)
Volume: $93

Trade this on Polymarket

Nacional

5.2%

1¢ bid, 9.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

9.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)

Nacional

5.2%

Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Nacional
Last price: 5.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9.3¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,075 (10.8x)
Volume: $140

Trade this on Polymarket

Fluminense

4.9%

6.4%

1¢ bid, 11.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Fluminense

4.9%

Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Fluminense
Last price: 6.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 11.7¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $855 (8.55x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Fluminense
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Atletico Mineiro

4.6%

1.1¢ bid, 8.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

8.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)

Atletico Mineiro

4.6%

Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Atletico Mineiro
Last price: 4.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8.1¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,235 (12.3x)
Volume: $65

Trade this on Polymarket

Penarol

4.6%

0.2¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Penarol

4.6%

Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Penarol
Last price: 4.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $65

Trade this on Polymarket

River Plate

4.2%

0.1¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

8.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)

River Plate

4.2%

Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: River Plate
Last price: 4.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,205 (12.0x)
Volume: $113

Trade this on Polymarket

Corinthians

1¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Corinthians

Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Corinthians
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $65

Trade this on Polymarket

Independiente

1¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Independiente

Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Independiente
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $65

Trade this on Polymarket

Internacional

1¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Internacional

Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Internacional
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $45

Trade this on Polymarket

Olimpia

3.8%

0.9¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)

Olimpia

3.8%

Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Olimpia
Last price: 3.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,515 (15.2x)
Volume: $93

Trade this on Polymarket

Universitario

3.6%

0.2¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)

Universitario

3.6%

Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Universitario
Last price: 3.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,449 (14.5x)
Volume: $93

Trade this on Polymarket

Bolivar

3.2%

0.2¢ bid, 6.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)

Bolivar

3.2%

Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Bolivar
Last price: 3.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,613 (16.1x)
Volume: $93

Trade this on Polymarket

Gremio

3.2%

1¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

5.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)

Gremio

3.2%

Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Gremio
Last price: 3.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 5.4¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,852 (18.5x)
Volume: $45

Trade this on Polymarket

Estudiantes

3.2%

0.2¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)

Estudiantes

3.2%

Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: Estudiantes
Last price: 3.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,639 (16.4x)
Volume: $73

Trade this on Polymarket

Colo-Colo

3.1%

0.2¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Colo-Colo

3.1%

Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Colo-Colo
Last price: 3.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $73

Trade this on Polymarket

LDU Quito

1¢ bid, 3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

LDU Quito

Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: LDU Quito
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 3¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,333 (33.3x)
Volume: $65

Trade this on Polymarket

Cruzeiro

1.6%

0.2¢ bid, 3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Cruzeiro

1.6%

Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Cruzeiro
Last price: 1.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 3¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,333 (33.3x)
Volume: $73

Trade this on Polymarket

Cerro Porteno

1.1%

0.2¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Cerro Porteno

1.1%

Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Cerro Porteno
Last price: 1.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $73

Trade this on Polymarket

Racing

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $33,333 (333x)

Racing

0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)

Polymarket

Contract: Racing
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $33,333 (333x)
Volume: $189

Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Palmeiras on Polymarket at 25.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 32¢ (610 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

Trading closes at different times: Dec 12, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle, source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes Dec 12, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Vasco da Gama

Live prices for Palmeiras

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 4m ago

Volume: $36K
Liquidity: $884
Outcomes listed: 3
Trading closes: Dec 12, 2026

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $17K
Liquidity: $18K
Outcomes listed: 24
Trading closes: Dec 15, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $5K
Liquidity: $1K
Outcomes listed: 4
Trading closes: Dec 6, 2026

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $19K
Liquidity: Not reported
Outcomes listed: 4
Trading closes: Dec 14, 2026

Trade on Kalshi

Paper trade

Simulated: orders fill in full at the venue's best price, with no fees. Not real money and not advice. Your results

Big trades

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Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Copa Libertadores Champion". Palmeiras leads at 44.1%. Next is Flamengo at 36.9%. $77K has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 14, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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What the markets expect

Odds by venue

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

How the odds have moved

Live prices for Palmeiras

Order books

Combined depth · both venues

Polymarket

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

Kalshi

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

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