The Prediction Markets

Copa Libertadores: Winner

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$55K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Palmeiras 47%

Next is Flamengo at 36.9%. The venues differ most on Palmeiras (Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 61%), a 14-point gap.

Palmeiras 47%Flamengo 36.9%Estudiantes de La Plata 8.5%Estudiantes LP 6.7%Fluminense 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Palmeiras
47%
Polymarket 47.5%(40.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%(52.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Palmeiras
Last price
47.5%
Fair, margin removed
40.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Palmeiras
Last price
61%
Fair, margin removed
52.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 38¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 61¢.

Flamengo
36.9%
Polymarket 50.5%(43.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 37%(31.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flamengo
Last price
50.5%
Fair, margin removed
43.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Flamengo
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
31.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 36¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 61¢.

Estudiantes de La Plata
8.5%
Kalshi 10%(8.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estudiantes de La Plata
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Estudiantes LP
6.7%
Polymarket 7.8%(6.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Estudiantes LP
Last price
7.8%
Fair, margin removed
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fluminense
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fluminense
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 12, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 12, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Palmeiras
  • Flamengo
  • Estudiantes de La Plata

Live prices for Palmeiras

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Copa Libertadores: Winner". Palmeiras leads at 47%. Next is Flamengo at 36.9%. $55K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the champion of the Copa Libertadores. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Copa Libertadores per the rules of Copa Libertadores (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the Copa Libertadores; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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