The Prediction Markets

Core CPI MoM - October 2026

Closes
Nov 11, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$1.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 96%

Next is Above 335.300 at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
96%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.300
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.300
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.600
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.600
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$369
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.400
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.400
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
30¢
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.500
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.500
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.800
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.800
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90¢
Volume
$520
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.900
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.900
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.700
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.700
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.300
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.300
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.1%
86.1%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 76%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.1%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.1%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$200K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.1%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$214K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 43 more outcomes
Above 336.600
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.600
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.2%
57.9%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 51%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$253K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$149K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.700
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.700
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.000
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.000
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.800
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.800
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.900
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.900
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 337.000
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 337.000
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 337.100
51.5%
Kalshi 51.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 337.100
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.100
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.100
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$575
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 336.200
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.200
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 337.200
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 337.200
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 337.300
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 337.300
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.200
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.200
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.300
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.300
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.400
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.400
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.500
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.500
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.600
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.600
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.700
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.700
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.800
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.800
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 334.900
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 334.900
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.000
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.000
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.100
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.100
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.200
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.200
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 335.400
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 335.400
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 337.400
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 337.400
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 337.500
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 337.500
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 337.600
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 337.600
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2%
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.3%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.3%
22.8%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.3%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.3%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.1%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 336.500
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 336.500
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.4%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.4%
6.6%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6%+
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%+
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.6%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.7%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.7%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.7%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.9%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS - CPI-U

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 335.300
  • Above 335.600

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Core CPI MoM - October 2026". Above 0.0% leads at 96%. Next is Above 335.300 at 95%. $1.6M has traded across 53 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in October 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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