The Prediction Markets

Core CPI YoY in December (exact value)

Closes
Jan 13, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$157K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

2.0-2.4% 80.5%

Next is Exactly 2.8% at 18%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
2.0-2.4%
80.5%
Polymarket 66.1%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 91%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $142 (1.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.4%
Last price
66.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70.2¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$142 (1.42x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.4%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 2.8%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.8%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
1.9%
17.5%
Polymarket 26.4%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 2.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.9%
Last price
26.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27.4¢
Sell Yes
25.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$365 (3.65x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
1.9%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 2.9%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.9%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.7%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.7%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.1%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.1%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.0%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.0%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.6%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.6%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.5%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.5%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.2%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.2%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Exactly 2.4%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.4%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.3%
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.3%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0-3.4%
3.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 4.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.4%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.4%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5-2.9%
3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-2.9%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-2.9%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 2.2%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.2%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.3%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.3%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.4%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.4%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.5%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.5%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.6%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.6%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.7%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.7%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5-3.9%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5-3.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
3.5-3.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: stat.go.jp
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2.0-2.4%
  • Exactly 2.8%
  • 1.9%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 2.0-2.4% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Core CPI YoY in December (exact value)". 2.0-2.4% leads at 80.5%. Next is Exactly 2.8% at 18%. $157K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 13, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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