The Prediction Markets

Core CPI YoY in November (exact value)

Closes
Dec 10, 2026, in 48 days
Traded
$158K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

2.0-2.4% 81%

Next is Exactly 2.9% at 26%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
2.0-2.4%
81%
Polymarket 67.3%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 91%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 69.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.4%
Last price
67.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
69.8¢
Sell Yes
64.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.4%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 2.9%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.9%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.8%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.8%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.9%
17.5%
Polymarket 26.4%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 2.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.9%
Last price
26.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27.4¢
Sell Yes
25.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$365 (3.65x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
1.9%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 2.7%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.7%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.7%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.7%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.0%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.0%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.5%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.5%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.2%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.2%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.4%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.4%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Exactly 3.1%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.1%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.3%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.3%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.4%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.4%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.5%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.5%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.6%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.6%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0-3.4%
3.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 5.1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.4%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.4%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5-2.9%
3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-2.9%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-2.9%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 2.2%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.2%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.3%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.3%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.6%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.6%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5-3.9%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5-3.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
3.5-3.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: stat.go.jp
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2.0-2.4%
  • Exactly 2.9%
  • Exactly 2.8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 2.0-2.4% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Core CPI YoY in November (exact value)". 2.0-2.4% leads at 81%. Next is Exactly 2.9% at 26%. $158K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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