The Prediction Markets

Core PCE MoM - October 2026

Closes
Nov 25, 2026, in 20 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
54 min ago
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What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 92%

Next is Above 0.1% at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 54 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.1%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.1%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.2%
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Polymarket
0.3%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Polymarket
0.4%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6%+
14.9%
Polymarket 14.9%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 28.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $348 (3.48x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%+
Last price
14.9%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
28.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$348 (3.48x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.3%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.3%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.4%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Kalshi
0.5%
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 54 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 54 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$198
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.1%
  • Above 0.2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Core PCE MoM - October 2026". Above 0.0% leads at 92%. Next is Above 0.1% at 83%. $5K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending October 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for October 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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